According to a new forecasting tool, half of single-family homes in Vancouver are currently at risk of being torn down, with 25% will be demolished between now and 2030.

The new tool, created by MountainMath’s Jens von Bergmann and UBC School of Architecture’s Joseph Dahmen, is using a residence’s value and the value of the overall property to predict how likely it is that the home will be demolished in the future.

Known as the teardown index, it suggests that the lower the value of the residence compared to the value of the overall property the more likely it is that the house will be torn down and replaced by a new one.

The teardown index was created in an effort to discover what factors influence the likelihood that a single-family home will be torn down and the environmental impacts of the new development being built in its place.

To create the teardown index, the Bergmann and Dahmen used municipal data and BC assessment records on single-family homes bought and sold in Vancouver between 2005 and 2015. With the data, they compared land value, building value, property sizes and whether the property was torn down a couple of years before or after the transaction.

Learn more at about the tear down index at mountainmath.ca/teardowns.

Last modified: February 25, 2017

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